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Today
5 things to verify
6 observations · 32 resolution risks
TOP ACTIONSWhat matters most right now.
Full research queue MARKET PULSE
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?HIGH EVIDENCE
Selected: strongest momentum observationChart: 7D YES-token price history
Implied probability
46% 26.0pp
24h volume
$775.8K
Orrery Pulse0% current0-50% 7D range-30.9pp net move
68%51%34%17%0%
0%
May 240%-30.9pp from start
May 23May 23May 23May 24May 24May 24May 24May 24
RESOLUTION RISK
Open watch Iran closes its airspace by May 31?UMA DISPUTED
High
Athletics vs. San Diego PadresUMA PENDING
High
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?UMA DISPUTED
High
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-24?UMA PENDING
High
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24?UMA PENDING
High
High
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red SoxUMA PENDING
High
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?UMA DISPUTED
High
High
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee BrewersUMA PENDING
High
New York Mets vs. Miami MarlinsUMA PENDING
High
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-24?UMA PENDING
High
High
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City RoyalsUMA PENDING
High
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 WinnerUMA PENDING
High
Chicago White Sox vs. San Francisco GiantsUMA PENDING
High
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-24?UMA PENDING
High
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-24?UMA PENDING
High
Hellas Verona FC vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5UMA PENDING
High
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona DiamondbacksUMA PENDING
High
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Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Medium
Showing 32 of 32 markets · refreshed nowHow risk is scored
RESEARCH QUEUE
Full research queue | Market | Score | Breakdown (Evidence / Liquidity / Spread / Res. Risk) | Next Step |
|---|---|---|---|
| 91 | 95/89 94/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 90 | 95/97 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 88 | 94/91 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 88 | 95/89 80/80 | Inspect timeline | |
| 88 | 92/80 94/80 | Inspect timeline |
Score = weighted composite of Evidence (40%), Liquidity (25%), Spread (20%), Resolution Confidence (15%).How we score markets
DAILY BRIEFMay 24, 2026
Read full brief - US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? probability down 56.0pp on $0.4M of 24h volume.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? shows a momentum pattern at 95% evidence — verify on the market.
- Thunder vs. Spurs resolves in 1h — verify the source before treating as research.
VERIFY (3)
IGNORE (0)
- —
RISK INCREASED (3)
WATCHLIST DELTA
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