# UMA disputes explained for Polymarket users

Published: 2026-05-17
Updated: 2026-05-17
Canonical: https://orrery.me/blog/uma-disputes-explained
Markdown: https://orrery.me/blog/uma-disputes-explained/markdown

A proposed outcome is not the same thing as final settlement. UMA state belongs next to every serious resolution workflow.

## Direct answer

- UMA proposal starts a settlement process; it does not always end it immediately.
- Challenge and dispute states should be treated as unresolved.
- Price pinned near 0 or 100 is not official final settlement.
- Resolution-risk views should show source status and user-facing warnings separately.

## Direct answer

UMA disputes are part of the optimistic-oracle settlement path used by many Polymarket markets. A proposed outcome can be challenged; if challenged, the market remains unresolved until the dispute process finalizes.

## How to read UMA states

The safest prediction-market workflow separates attention, evidence, source quality, and next action. A probability move can be important, but it is not useful until the market is liquid enough, the rule is clear enough, and the user knows what to verify next.

- Find the market's proposed outcome and timestamp.
- Check whether the challenge window is still open.
- Treat challenged or disputed states as unresolved.
- Wait for final settlement before calling the market resolved.

## What to verify before trusting the move

Good research tools keep the boring details visible. Expiry, resolution source, official status, spread, liquidity, and related markets often explain why a headline probability should be treated carefully.

- Is the displayed outcome proposed, challenged, disputed, or settled?
- Does the resolution rule name a clear source?
- Is the market price being mistaken for official status?
- Does the frontend distinguish upstream status from Orrery's derived status?

## How Orrery handles it

Orrery treats resolution risk as a non-directional research signal. It warns when a market is near expiry, pinned before official confirmation, or dependent on unresolved source/UMA state.

Orrery is not a broker and does not provide trade recommendations. It ranks research work, explains market structure, and keeps resolution rules visible so humans and agents can make better verification decisions.

## FAQ

### Does a UMA proposed outcome mean the market is resolved?

No. It means an outcome has been proposed. It still needs to pass the relevant challenge/dispute process.

### Why can a market trade at 99 cents before final resolution?

Market price reflects trader expectations and liquidity. Official settlement depends on the rule and oracle/source process.

### What should I do when a market is disputed?

Treat it as a verification job. Read the rule, source, proposal, dispute status, and finalization path.

## Related Orrery resources

- [Resolution risk guide](https://orrery.me/blog/polymarket-resolution-risk)
- [Status](https://orrery.me/status)
- [Signals](https://orrery.me/signals)
- [Methodology](https://orrery.me/methodology)

Orrery is not affiliated with Polymarket and does not provide investment, legal, or tax advice.