US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends?

• 01
  Price move

  Down 5pp over 24h

  Now 58¢; -2.5pp in the last hour.

• 02
  Active signal

  Momentum observation firing

  Probability moved down 4.5pp in 24h with 0.3× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal before the US-Iran ceasefire ends. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If neither a permanent peace deal nor the end of the ceasefire occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Permanent Peace Deal: A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The primary resolution source for the establishment of a permanent peace deal will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Ceasefire Ends: The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to have ended if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil. A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory. Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source for the ceasefire ending will be official information from the government of the United States and a consensus of credible reporting.

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