Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 25% and 30%?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 21¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 21.0pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm).
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 27.2h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.