Gloomy-Refuse
0x15669ac6417d6f258c84f9232222b84fde0f86af
Wallet digest
Activity score
95/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
33
Open notional
$950.14
Total PnL
$-607.64
Realised
$72.89
Win rate
100%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 33- YES
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?
3972 shares @ 4.4¢·now 6.2¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$246.28
$71.09
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
450 shares @ 73.4¢·now 40.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$180.00
$-150.50
- NO
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?
170 shares @ 75.6¢·now 89.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$152.15
$23.65
- YES
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?
100 shares @ 71.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$90.50
$19.50
- NO
AI bubble burst in 2026?
100 shares @ 76.2¢·now 78.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$78.01
$1.80
- YES
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
640 shares @ 7.5¢·now 8.8¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$56.00
$8.00
- NO
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?
103 shares @ 67.0¢·now 45.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$46.21
$-22.59
- NO
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
68 shares @ 29.6¢·now 30.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$20.98
$0.85
- YES
Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027?
160 shares @ 13.0¢·now 12.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.20
$-1.60
- YES
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?
72 shares @ 13.0¢·now 22.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$15.82
$6.47
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYAI bubble burst in 2026?$17.21May 24, 02:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 24, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?$34.50May 23, 22:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?$1.34May 23, 21:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?$1.22May 23, 21:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?$0.86May 23, 21:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?$1.09May 23, 20:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?$6.91May 23, 15:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?$64.09May 23, 15:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$8.58May 23, 14:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?$4.64May 23, 14:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?$1.54May 23, 14:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$0.63May 23, 13:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYAI bubble burst in 2026?$58.98May 23, 13:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?$11.71May 23, 10:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?$3.80May 23, 09:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?$6.51May 23, 08:22 UTC
- YIELD$0.01May 23, 00:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump attend his son's wedding?$29.60May 22, 17:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?$1.32May 22, 16:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $17.22
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 21, 12:03 UTC
- Last active
- May 24, 02:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".