Monitoring

How to monitor prediction markets without missing important moves

Monitoring is a loop: scan, inspect, save, alert, brief, and verify. Skipping any part creates blind spots.

8 minPublished 2026-05-17 · Updated 2026-05-17

Direct answer

  • Monitoring starts with a ranked attention queue, not a giant watchlist.
  • Watchlists should track delta, expiry, liquidity, and resolution risk.
  • Alerts should fire on movement, divergence, whale flow, and settlement changes.
  • A daily brief turns monitoring into a repeatable habit.

Direct answer

To monitor prediction markets well, use a daily loop: scan for important live movement, inspect the market detail, add watchlist rows that matter, create alerts for thresholds, and read a morning brief that summarizes what changed and what needs verification.

The monitoring loop

The safest prediction-market workflow separates attention, evidence, source quality, and next action. A probability move can be important, but it is not useful until the market is liquid enough, the rule is clear enough, and the user knows what to verify next.

  • Use the scanner to find markets with meaningful movement or source risk.
  • Open market detail to inspect rules, source, liquidity, and related markets.
  • Add only durable research candidates to a watchlist.
  • Create alerts for probability thresholds, divergence, or resolution changes.
  • Review a daily brief for changes since the last session.

What to verify before trusting the move

Good research tools keep the boring details visible. Expiry, resolution source, official status, spread, liquidity, and related markets often explain why a headline probability should be treated carefully.

  • Does the market's resolution source still match your use case?
  • Did the move happen on enough volume?
  • Are sibling markets moving too?
  • Is the alert local-only, email, webhook, or team-routed?

How Orrery handles it

Orrery connects scanner, market detail, watchlist, alerts, and Daily Brief into one monitoring loop. The goal is to help users return to the right markets at the right time, not stare at every market all day.

Orrery is not a broker and does not provide trade recommendations. It ranks research work, explains market structure, and keeps resolution rules visible so humans and agents can make better verification decisions.

FAQ

How often should you check prediction markets?

For most users, a morning brief plus alerts is better than constant manual refresh. Active research desks may also use scanner views throughout the day.

What belongs on a prediction-market watchlist?

Markets with durable relevance, upcoming resolution, meaningful liquidity, or a threshold you care about.

Can AI agents monitor prediction markets?

Yes. Agents can call attention, detail, resolution-risk, and watchlist endpoints, then summarize only the supplied evidence.

Monitor prediction markets | Orrery