Geopolitics prediction markets

Geopolitics markets — wars, ceasefires, sanctions, treaties, summits. Ranked by 24h volume.

17 live

updated 04:03:50 UTC·src:Polymarket Gamma

24h volume

$12.9M

Across 17 live markets

Avg volatility

1.8pp

Average |24h move| in this category

Top movers

Markets with |Δ24h| ≥ 5pp

Whale flow

$0.00

0 trades ≥$5k

Source-risk

Markets in active UMA dispute / pending

Resolving <24h

Watch for the settlement print

Market	Prob	Δ24h	Vol 24h	Liq
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?	12¢	+4.0	$4.4M	$15.1K
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	1¢	-2.1	$1.8M	$546.2K
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	1¢	-2.1	$938.8K	$368.0K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	4¢	+0.1	$866.5K	$435.0K
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	1¢	+0.5	$654.1K	$802.6K
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	3¢	-1.5	$624.0K	$71.2K
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	1¢	-2.0	$600.2K	$307.3K
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	8¢	-2.0	$531.8K	$913.7K
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	6¢	0.0	$375.9K	$443.7K
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	0¢	0.0	$345.4K	$8.0M
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	7¢	-0.1	$335.5K	$979.7K
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	31¢	+11.0	$310.6K	$47.1K
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	13¢	+1.0	$259.8K	$65.4K
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	14¢	-4.0	$247.3K	$125.4K
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	28¢	0.0	$228.1K	$289.9K
Will Putin visit China by May 31?	100¢	-0.1	$216.6K	$92.5K
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	5¢	0.0	$216.2K	$709.0K