The market moved
+0.6ppin 24h · now 4¢
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
Other · resolves Dec 31 · vol $87.66
Why
Probability rose slightly up to 4¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.6pp shift. Resolution depends on department of defense — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Department of Defense — https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.