The market moved

+3.3ppin 24h · now

Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by May 31, 2026?

Geopolitics · resolves May 31 · vol $337.64

Why

Probability rose modestly up to 6¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 3.3pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting.
  • Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.
+3.3pp · Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by May 31, 2026? | Orrery