ECB rate hike in 2026?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 93¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 1.0pp shift. Resolution depends on ecb — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: ECB — https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html).
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.