Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 69.5pp shift. Resolution depends on polymarket post counter (tracker) — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

Resolution status: proposed — verify before treating this as news.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Polymarket Post Counter (tracker) — https://xtracker.polymarket.com.
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• UMA resolution status is "proposed". Source-risk is non-trivial — a move that unwinds on settlement isn't really news.
• Market resolves in 6.9h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.