European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 4¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.6pp shift. Resolution depends on nato — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: NATO.
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.