Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C or below on May 20?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 0¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.0pp shift. Resolution depends on wunderground.com — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

Resolution status: proposed — verify before treating this as news.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: wunderground.com — https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• UMA resolution status is "proposed". Source-risk is non-trivial — a move that unwinds on settlement isn't really news.
• Market resolves in 3.6h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.