The market moved
+2.4ppin 24h · now 99¢
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on May 18?
Business · resolves May 18 · vol $588.54
Why
Probability rose modestly up to 99¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 2.4pp shift. Resolution depends on split-adjusted prices as displayed on yahoo finance — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance — https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/history.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 0.7h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.