1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 45¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 1.5pp shift. Resolution depends on based on the score at halftime only — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: based on the score at halftime only.
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 6.7h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.