The market moved
+51.8ppin 24h · now 99¢
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026?
Politics · resolves May 19 · vol $713.53
Why
Probability rose sharply up to 99¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 51.8pp shift. Resolution depends on polymarket post counter (tracker) — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Polymarket Post Counter (tracker) — https://xtracker.polymarket.com.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 27.3h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.