The market moved
+1.0ppin 24h · now 24¢
US recession by end of 2026?
Macro · resolves Jan 31 · vol $4.1K
Why
Probability rose slightly up to 24¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 1.0pp shift. Resolution depends on bureau of economic — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Bureau of Economic — https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.