The market moved
+2.5ppin 24h · now 53¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Geopolitics · resolves Jul 31 · vol $220.6K
Why
Probability rose modestly up to 53¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 2.5pp shift. Resolution depends on official government information — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Official government information.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.