The market moved
+0.0ppin 24h · now 23¢
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?
Geopolitics · resolves May 17 · vol $5.5K
Why
Probability rose slightly up to 23¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.0pp shift. Resolution depends on imf — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: IMF — https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.