The market moved
-1.5ppin 24h · now 25¢
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?
Geopolitics · resolves Jun 1 · vol $66.93
Why
Probability fell slightly down to 25¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 1.5pp shift. Resolution depends on imf — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: IMF — https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.