Will an independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 15¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.4pp shift. Resolution depends on associated press — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Associated Press.
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.