Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 3.00% and 3.49%?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 5¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.8pp shift. Resolution depends on to the percentage change in the extended national consumer price index (ipca) during the 12-month period ending december — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December — https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html).
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.