Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 41¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.0pp shift. Resolution depends on the most recent data from the last available quarter — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: the most recent data from the last available quarter — https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.