The market moved
-3.5ppin 24h · now 13¢
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22?
Geopolitics · resolves May 22 · vol $7.7K
Why
Probability fell modestly down to 13¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 3.5pp shift. Resolution depends on chinese government — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Chinese government.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.