Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 2¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 1.4pp shift. Resolution depends on chinese government — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Chinese government.
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.