The market moved
+0.1ppin 24h · now 1¢
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be less than 4.0%?
Macro · resolves Jul 16 · vol $11.03
Why
Probability rose slightly up to 1¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.1pp shift. Resolution depends on gdp release — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: GDP release — https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.