Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 7¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.1pp shift. Resolution depends on united nations — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: United Nations.
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.