The market moved

-7.5ppin 24h · now 32¢

Will Claude go down 12+ times in May?

AI · resolves May 31 · vol $1.72

Why

Probability fell decisively down to 32¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 7.5pp shift. Resolution depends on to the number of days in the month of may during which claude (claude — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude — https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
  • Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.
-7.5pp · Will Claude go down 12+ times in May? | Orrery