The market moved
-24.0ppin 24h · now 15¢
Will David Collenberg advance from the California Lieutenant Governor Primary in 2026?
Politics · resolves Nov 3 · vol $0.00
Why
Probability fell sharply down to 15¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 24.0pp shift. Resolution depends on sos.ca.gov — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: sos.ca.gov — https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.