Will David Roth be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Idaho?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 96¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.2pp shift. Resolution depends on nato — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: nato.
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 8.1h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.