Will Ed Diehl win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 16¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 3.3pp shift. Resolution depends on nato — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: nato.
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 16.9h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.