Will "FATHERLAND by Pawel PAWLIKOWSKI" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival?

Why

Probability rose decisively up to 34¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 5.5pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/live/).
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.