Will fewer than 950 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 6¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 1.6pp shift. Resolution depends on to the number of tornadoes recorded in the united states in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the national — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National — https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.