Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in May 2026?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 14¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.0pp shift. Resolution depends on to the value reported by the global land-ocean temperature index for may 2026 when it is released — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released — https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.