The market moved
+1.3ppin 24h · now 12¢
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Politics · resolves May 31 · vol $526.64
Why
Probability rose slightly up to 12¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 1.3pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://registraduria.gov.co).
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.