Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15-20%?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 8¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 1.4pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://registraduria.gov.co).
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.