Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 37¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.0pp shift. Resolution depends on nato — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: nato.
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.