The market moved

-11.5ppin 24h · now 32¢

Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?

Politics · resolves Dec 31 · vol $4.5K

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 32¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 11.5pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting.
  • Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.