Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?

Why

Probability rose modestly up to 21¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 2.5pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.