Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 3¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.1pp shift. Resolution depends on to the winner of the 2026 nobel peace prize, as announced by the norwegian nobel committee — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.