Will Republican House incumbents not win in between thirteen and fifteen nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?

Why

Probability rose modestly up to 21¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 4.0pp shift. Resolution depends on associated press — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Associated Press.
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.