The market moved
-2.2ppin 24h · now 4¢
Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Politics · resolves Oct 4 · vol $268.79
Why
Probability fell modestly down to 4¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.2pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.