The market moved
-1.0ppin 24h · now 10¢
Will Russia enter Kherson by December 31, 2026?
Geopolitics · resolves Dec 31 · vol $144.34
Why
Probability fell slightly down to 10¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 1.0pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://maps.app.goo.gl/zwgqUcSNzfHfgTBy9).
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.