The market moved
+3.1ppin 24h · now 4¢
Will Tadeu Leite win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?
Geopolitics · resolves Oct 4 · vol $0.00
Why
Probability rose modestly up to 4¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 3.1pp shift. Resolution depends on nato — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: nato.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.