Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the August meeting?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 5¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.1pp shift. Resolution depends on to the change in basis points in the target for the selic rate resulting from the august 2026 meeting of the bank of bra — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Bra — https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)).
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.