The market moved

-0.7ppin 24h · now

Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the June Meeting?

Geopolitics · resolves Jun 19 · vol $101.55

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 1¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.7pp shift. Resolution depends on to the change in the key rate resulting from the bank of russia’s june meeting, relative to the level it was prior to th — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to th — https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13.
  • Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
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