Will the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 38¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.0pp shift. Resolution depends on official government information — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Official government information — https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/22).
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.