Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the May decision?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 14¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.5pp shift. Resolution depends on @hierarchicalz95 — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: @hierarchicalz95 — https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy].
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.