The market moved
-12.5ppin 24h · now 68¢
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31?
Politics · resolves May 31 · vol $963.62
Why
Probability fell sharply down to 68¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 12.5pp shift. Resolution depends on us government — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: US Government.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.