The market moved
+1.2ppin 24h · now 37¢
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?
Geopolitics · resolves Dec 31 · vol $273.89
Why
Probability rose slightly up to 37¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 1.2pp shift. Resolution depends on us government — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: US government.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.